Plot The Dots

Trump and Putin have decided the world is better served by emperors than elected presidents and prime ministers. Once they have divided up either side of the Atlantic they can reduce military spending and rule their empires how they see fit. We know Trump wants to make Canada the 51st state, acquire the strategically important Greenland and make the Panama Canal American again - “And above all, China is operating the Panama Canal.  And we didn’t give it to China.  We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” (Trumps inauguration speech). Is he serious? Or is it a case of dont take him literally, take him seriously? That may have been the case in his first term. He was surprised to be elected and was surrounded by establishment figures who thwarted his instincts at every step as the conveyor belt of firings testifies. So whenever he said what he thought he couldn’t do it. This time he has congress, the senate and the Supreme Court on his side. He arrives with a plan and he has decimated the professionals from every important part of government and replaced them with unqualified but very loyal and obedient people who will follow it. In many ways their lack of ability increases their dependency on him. We believe he still means what he says but this time he has the apparatus to enforce his ideas. Fail to take him literally AND seriously at your peril. The first moves centre on Europe. America needs to exit NATO without upsetting his public in America (65% support NATO). Russia needs Europe disunited if it has a chance of recreating the USSR. Remember Russia only has a population of 144m and GDP of $2tn versus a European population of 745m and GDP of $28tn. We believe Vance and Musk have a key role in sewing unrest in Europe. They want to divide European societies, as for example Vance’s speech in Munich, and keep the nations fragmented. They will support all isolationist/nationalist parties across Europe who want to stay away from conflicts. We expect many of them will be funded from Russia and possibly USA going forward. If they win they must push for the destruction of the EU and eventually lead a puppet government for the Russians. Musk has the role of Propaganda Chief. We believe he bought X for this reason. His fight for ‘freedom of all speech’ is a cover to allow him to spread outright lies across his platform designed to confuse and sow mistrust amongst the Europeans. He is a very intelligent man so his clear lies (eg USA sent $350bn to Ukraine) are designed for another reason. We believe they are intentionally malign. Trump has the job of getting out of NATO, removing military assets from Europe and dismantling the rules based order. Given Europe have been falling below the agreed spending levels for a long time this will be simple to escalate and withdraw. The tricky bit is getting out of Ukraine without looking weak to his American public. It looks like he will push the human suffering to gain the support of his public and be the foundation for a peace deal at any cost. If Ukraine cant find any security in a peace deal and refuse to co-operate they will be the scapegoat and cover for America removing support. America need to be so unreasonable Ukraine cannot agree. But if they do it will be a capitulation to Russia. In any event America will either sign mineral deals with Ukraine or Russia (for assets in Ukraine); who governs Ukraine will have no effect on extracting minerals for America. There were American companies in both Russia and Ukraine in 2022 and that didn’t stop Russia invading. America and Russia have agreed to divide up the country. With America completely out of Europe and NATO, Russia is free to accelerate arms production and attack NATO members. Russia needs stabilise its economy to grow its Defence Industrial Base. America will help by dropping all sanctions and investing in Russia. The Europeans are in a tricky economic position. They are already violating Fergusons Law (any power that sends more on debt servicing than on defence risks losing its status as a major power) and if they are the only countries observing sanctions against Russia their fiscal positions worsens just as they need to raise military expenditure. We believe a debt crisis as well as a military crisis will engulf Europe. This double whammy will hamper public appetite for conflict as their economies worsen and will create fragmentations in any European alliance. Russia know this and cannot allow Europe to improve its fiscal position nor significantly rearm and definitely not unite. An attack on a European country will soon follow and America will not be coming to Europe’s aid. Even worse, America has control of much of the military equipment and intelligence Europe relies on. Europe will be help to ransom or the equipment will be rendered useless. With Europe stretched militarily, economically and politically America will make its move to cement its empire from Greenland to Panama. The shaping of the conflict is already preparing the American public for the future conflict; war has been declared on immigrants, drug cartels and trade. All of these can be used as pretexts to annex their neighbours. Either the flow of immigrants or drugs are a threat to American lives and either the country surrenders or faces invasion to ‘solve’ the problem. And we are already seeing the start of a trade war to cripple their economies. Trump will want the tariffs to escalate to levels that threaten the livelihoods of Americans and provide the pretext to take control of resources needed by his country. Again their neighbours either agree to be annexed or face a military attack. With Mexico and Canada conquered and no other power willing to assist, America will continue to the north and south until its Empire from Greenland to Panama is complete. To do all this Trump faces two huge domestic issues. Firstly the USA also violates Fergusons Law and secondly democracies dont vote to attack other democracies. He is tackling both of these problems. DOGE has the task of reducing the deficit to free up money for the military and reduce the amount spent on servicing debt. The goal will be to no longer violate Fergusons Law. The harder task is subverting democracy. We have seen him slowly bringing all government agencies in to the control of the executive to allow him to control the rule of law, what information is disseminated and eventually the outcomes of elections. His end goal is to run sham elections that will see him or his chosen successor stay in power. And of course once he starts a conflict with his neighbours he will declare martial law and stay in power. Trump will be the Emperor of America and Putin will once again rule the USSR.